U.S. Revenue Likely to Fall Below $100B in 2025
According to data tracked by PreNews, there is currently a 92% probability that U.S. federal revenue will fall below $100 billion in 2025. This figure, sourced from Polymarket, reflects significant market confidence in this outcome, with $58,583 in trading volume over the past 24 hours.
Why This Matters
Federal revenue is a cornerstone of government operations, funding everything from infrastructure to social programs. A drop below $100 billion would represent a dramatic shift, raising questions about the underlying causes. Potential factors could include significant tax policy changes, economic contraction, or unforeseen disruptions in revenue collection mechanisms. Such a scenario would likely have far-reaching implications for fiscal policy and public services.
What Resolution Looks Like
This market will resolve in early 2026 based on official U.S. Treasury data for the 2025 fiscal year. If total federal revenue collected falls below the $100 billion threshold, the market will resolve to "Yes." Conversely, if revenue exceeds this amount, the outcome will be "No."
Market Sentiment
The 92% probability suggests strong market consensus on this issue, though the lack of recent liquidity data and 24-hour changes makes it difficult to gauge shifting sentiment. PreNews will continue to monitor this market for updates and provide timely insights.
As this scenario unfolds, stakeholders should consider the broader economic and policy implications of such a significant revenue shortfall.