Low Probability for U.S. Revenue Between $100B and $200B in 2025

U.S. Revenue Forecast for 2025 Shows Low Likelihood of $100B-$200B Range

According to data tracked by PreNews, there is currently only a 3% probability that the United States will collect between $100 billion and $200 billion in revenue during 2025. This prediction, sourced from Polymarket, reflects significant skepticism about the possibility of revenue falling within this range.

Why This Market Matters

Federal revenue is a key indicator of economic performance and fiscal policy effectiveness. A revenue range of $100 billion to $200 billion would represent an unusually low figure for the U.S., given that federal revenue exceeded $4.9 trillion in 2022. Such a scenario would likely signal either a dramatic economic contraction, significant tax policy changes, or extraordinary circumstances impacting revenue collection.

What Resolution Would Look Like

This market will resolve based on official U.S. government data for total revenue collected in 2025, as reported in early 2026. For the market to resolve positively, the total revenue must fall strictly within the $100 billion to $200 billion range. Given the current probability, market participants appear to view this outcome as highly unlikely.

Market Activity

The market has seen $24,242 in trading volume over the past 24 hours, but the probability remains static at 3%. This suggests limited confidence in a shift toward this outcome.

As the U.S. economy continues to evolve, PreNews will monitor this market for any significant changes or developments.